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SEPTEMBER 18,  2014

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:52 A.M. ET: 

NO, AS OF THIS HOUR – From BBC:  "Scotland will vote to stay in the United Kingdom after rejecting independence, the BBC has predicted.  With 26 out of the country's 32 council areas having declared, the 'No' side has 54% of the vote, with the 'Yes' campaign on 46%.  By 05:15 BST (06:15 GMT), the 'No' campaign had more than 1,397,000 votes, with 'Yes' on just over 1,176,000.  A total of 1,852,828 votes is needed for victory in the referendum.  The BBC is predicting on the basis of the result declared so far that the 'No' side will win the referendum with 55% of the vote while 'Yes' will secure 45% of the vote."  The mayor of Chicago is offering to change the result in exchange for three cases of Scotch, well, you know what.

WEIRD – From the Washington Times:  "Mysterious 'interceptor' cellphone towers that can listen in someone’s phone call despite not being part of any phone networks have turned up near the White House and Senate.  A company that specializes in selling secure mobile phones discovered the existence of several of the towers in and around the nation’s capitol.  'It’s highly unlikely that federal law enforcement would be using mobile interceptors near the Senate,' ESD America CEO Les Goldsmith told the technology website Venture Beat on Thursday."  How could anyone hide a tower?

DEMS LOSING SOME WOMEN – From Newsmax:  "In a New York Times/CBS News poll, and a Wall Street Journal/NBC News survey, a shift in the traditional edge Democrats have over Republicans among women was noted.  In the Times/CBS News poll, for example, when asked 'If the 2014 election for United States House of Representatives seats were being held today, would you vote for the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate in your district?,' women picked Democrats over Republicans by just one point, 43 percent to 42 percent.  And in the Journal/NBC News survey, asked if they wanted the midterm elections to produce a Democrat- or GOP-led Congress, 47 percent of women chose Democrats while 40 percent preferred a Republican majority; a month earlier, women favored a Democratic Congress 51-37 percent."  A number of trends seem to be going our way, but there are no guarantees that these will translate into individual state victories.  We have to work as if we're 20 points down.

WARREN SPLITS ON SYRIA – From The Hill:  "Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) on Thursday voted against legislation authorizing President Obama to arm and train Syrian rebels, taking a stand that could distinguish her from Hillary Clinton in 2016.  She voted against legislation to fund the government until Dec. 11, which included a provision giving Obama Title X authority to equip Syrian militants in hopes they will fight violent Sunni extremists.  Warren has a thin foreign policy résumé but by voting against the authority Obama requested, she will earn points with members of the Democratic base who are skeptical about another military campaign in the Middle East."  No, that crowd is skeptical about national defense, period.

September 18, 2014      Permalink

TRUST IN MEDIA DOWN AGAIN – AT 10:21 A.M. ET:  What is striking is that people in the media seem so little concerned about their poor standing with the public.  From Gallup: 

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- After registering slightly higher trust last year, Americans' confidence in the media's ability to report "the news fully, accurately, and fairly" has returned to its previous all-time low of 40%. Americans' trust in mass media has generally been edging downward from higher levels in the late 1990s and the early 2000s.

Prior to 2004, Americans placed more trust in mass media than they do now, with slim majorities saying they had a "great deal" or "fair amount" of trust. But over the course of former President George W. Bush's re-election season, the level of trust fell significantly, from 54% in 2003 to 44% in 2004. Although trust levels rebounded to 50% in 2005, they have failed to reach a full majority since.

Americans' trust in the media in recent years has dropped slightly in election years, including 2008, 2010, 2012, and again this year -- only to edge its way back up again in the following odd-numbered years. Although the differences between the drops and the recoveries are not large, they suggest that something about national elections triggers skepticism about the accuracy of the news media's reporting.

Trust among Democrats, who have traditionally expressed much higher levels of confidence in the media than Republicans have, dropped to a 14-year low of 54% in 2014. Republicans' trust in the media is at 27%, one percentage point above their all-time low, while independents held steady at 38% -- up one point from 37% in 2013.

COMMENT:  It's significant that Dems still have a much higher trust in the media than do Republicans or independents.  Kind of confirms our view of media bias.

I don't know how a free society can operate well with such a low regard for its press.  Without a free and trusted press, a society is uninformed.  And eventually that society becomes suspicious and even paranoid.

And yet, I see little motivation in mainstream media for improvement.  And I see little introspection.  It's a very sad and dangerous picture.

September 18, 2014        Permalink

WATCHING COLORADO – AT 9:16 A.M. ET:  There's been some press in the last few days suggesting that Democrats are gaining in their attempt to retain control of the U.S. Senate.  Part of that speculation has been based on the Senate race in Colorado, and the belief that the incumbent, Democratic Senator Mark Udall, would win.  Not so fast.  A new poll raises doubts.  From AP: 

DENVER — Republican Rep. Cory Gardner is leading Democratic Sen. Mark Udall in Colorado, according to a new independent poll released Thursday.

The 48-40 Gardner lead among likely voters in The Quinnipiac University Poll contrasts with two other independent polls released earlier this month that found Udall tied or slightly ahead in the race. It is from the same pollster that found Democratic Gov. John Hickenlooper 10 points behind his Republican challenger, a finding that also conflicted with other polls that have shown that race essentially tied.

The Quinnipiac poll surveyed 1,211 voters by telephone from Sept. 10-15 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points.

The Colorado Senate race is one of the most competitive and expensive in the nation. Republicans need to pick up six seats to win control of the chamber.

COMMENT:  We stress that this is one poll, and that, as the story indicates, it does differ from other polls taken recently.  However, polls of likely voters tend to show higher levels of Republican support than other surveys because Republicans actually are more likely to vote.  We'll be watching this race.  We hope this latest poll is the accurate one.

In North Carolina, though, Democratic incumbent Senator Kay Hagan does seem to have a stable lead over her Republican challenger, Thom Tillis.  Republicans have targeted North Carolina, and Hagan isn't all that popular.  But the state has changed over the years, with an influx of Northern liberal academics and minorities.  The Dem base is strong.  This will be a tough one.

September 18, 2014       Permalink

CLOSE CALL IN AUSTRALIA – AT 8:55 A.M. ET:   Australia apparently came very close to a terror disaster.  From the Sydney Morning-Herald: 

Prime Minister Tony Abbott says intelligence indicates people in Australia were allegedly planning a public beheading to be carried out in the name of militant group Islamic State.

Mr Abbott's comments come as police say they have thwarted a "serious act of violence" after arresting 15 people and charging one in the wake of counter-terrorism raids across Sydney and Brisbane on Thursday.

Fairfax Media understands police will allege that the suspects were planning to snatch and behead a random member of the public, then drape them in the flag of the Islamic State, also known as ISIL.

Mr Abbott, who is in Arnhem Land to fulfil an election pledge to spend a week in a remote community, said on Thursday that a senior member of Islamic State, who is an Australian, had urged supporters at home to carry out "demonstration killings" in Australia, according to intelligence reports.

The Prime Minister was asked about reports that there were plans to conduct public beheadings, and he responded: "That's the intelligence we received.

"Quite direct exhortations were coming from an Australian who is apparently quite senior in ISIL to networks in Australia to conduct demonstration killings here in this country," Mr Abbott told reporters.

"So this is not just suspicion, this is intent."

COMMENT:  This should worry us here.  The kind of horror the prime minister described could occur in the United States, and attacking America gives any terror group the most important credential of all.  We are the Great Satan to them.

September 18, 2014       Permalink

NO MORE BRIGADOON? – AT 8:31 A.M. ET:  Scotland votes today on whether to remain part of the United Kingdom or declare its independence.  Anything that weakens the U.K. weakens the Western world.  The independence crowd in Scotland doesn't seem to care.  Even Barack Obama has come out strongly for a continued United Kingdom.  From AFP: 

Edinburgh (AFP) - Scotland voted Thursday in an independence referendum that could break up the centuries-old United Kingdom and create Europe's newest state since the collapse of Yugoslavia.

Some 97 percent of eligible Scots -- nearly 4.3 million people -- have registered to vote, underscoring the passions that the historic decision has ignited across the nation.

In queues snaking outside polling stations, voters spoke emotionally about the momentous choice they were faced with.

"It's an important day. This is a decision which lasts forever, which will impact my children," said Charlotte Farish, 34, who turned out early in Edinburgh with her two children before taking them to school and heading into work.

In Glasgow, 23-year-old Aidan Ford said: "I felt different today than in most of the previous votes. I might be making a difference and my vote counts."

After months when it looked like the independence camp could not win, a surge in support in the final two weeks has left pollsters warning the outcome is too close to call.

COMMENT:  Independence is a silly idea.  There's no guarantee whatever that Scotland could thrive, or even survive, as an independent country.  The country depends on North Sea oil, and that is being depleted.  It would probably surge to the left, eliminating its contribution to Western defense.  It would not be part of NATO.  It would have some nice golf courses.

Vote no.

September 18,  2014     Permalink

SEPTEMBER 17,  2014

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:38 P.M. ET:

IOWA SURPRISE? – From Fox:  "Republican Joni Ernst has pulled ahead of Democratic Rep. Bruce Braley in the Iowa Senate race, according to a new poll that points to a heated battle for votes in the final stretch.  The Quinnipiac University survey showed Ernst, a state senator, leading Braley by 6 points, 50-44 percent among likely voters. The poll also showed her leading among independents, a key voting bloc.  The results are a break from earlier polling which for months has shown Braley leading or tied with his GOP rival.  Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University poll, said in a statement put out by the university that while 'some pundits back east' may have mocked Ernst’s ads in which she talked about living on a farm, 'they send an effective message to Iowans that she is one of them.'"  Polls differ, but there has been a trend toward Ernst.  This would be a great turnover for us.

POLICY OF THE DAY – From the Washington Times:  "Contradicting what his top military adviser said just a day earlier, President Obama personally assured U.S. soldiers Wednesday that he will not send them into ground combat against terrorists in Iraq and Syria, the latest example of the president’s direct involvement in setting the rules for the new war.  'As your commander in chief, I will not commit you and the rest of our armed forces to fighting another ground war in Iraq,' Mr. Obama told about 1,200 troops at MacDill Air Force Base in Tampa, home of the U.S. Central Command. 'The American forces that have been deployed to Iraq do not and will not have a combat mission.'"  Keep watching this space for tomorrow's foreign policy.

A SERIOUS WARNING – From Newsmax:  "Recalling that the Soviet Union stockpiled hemorrhagic fevers during the Cold War, a federal health official warned Tuesday the Ebola virus could be similarly wielded as a potential weapon of mass destruction.  'Theoretically, you can manipulate almost any virus to change it in any way you want,' National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases director, Anthony Fauci, told a Senate hearing, The Hill reports.  'The only trouble is, it wouldn't be easy for somebody to do that in their backyard laboratory. They would probably kill themselves doing it. It would take a state-type [actor].'"  We haven't discussed the threat of bio-terror much, but maybe we should.  Of course, one thing holding bio-terror back is that it may get out of control and kill the very people launching it.

SAD – Writers always hope this isn't true, but it must be reported.  From Daily Caller:  "Plagiarism charges against CNN anchor Fareed Zakaria are back with a vengeance.  The team at 'Our Bad Media' claims to have found more than two dozen episodes of 'Fareed Zakaria GPS' that featured content that was 'lifted without proper attribution.'  The content was lifted from outlets such as The New York Times, The Economist and National Review, along with academic papers and documentaries (as seen below).  'Zakaria will simply recite numbers and facts without any attribution. In others, he’ll cite a study or paper when he really only lifted someone else’s reporting on it,' according to the report. 'In all of them, Zakaria fails to give credit where it’s due, either on the show itself or the blog posts that accompany most segments on CNN’s website'  The most egregious example is placed front and center in the report.  Zakaria copied, almost verbatim, the introduction to an obscure Dutch documentary on the imprisonment and death of Sergei Magnitsky, a Russian whistle-blower, into a segment on the story on his CNN show."  Zakaria has been suspended before due to alleged plagiarism.  I suspect CNN will have to investigate these new charges thoroughly.  The result can be grim.

September 17,  2014     Permalink

BABY, IT'S COLD OUTSIDE – AT 6:43 P.M. ET:   Another setback for the "sky is falling, ocean is rising, skin is peeling, world is roasting" chorus who still sing the Al Gore Songbook.  From the New York Post:

In the runup to the Sept. 23 UN Climate Summit in New York, Leonardo DiCaprio is releasing a series of films about the “climate crisis.”

The first is “Carbon,” which tells us the world is threatened by a “carbon monster.” Coal, oil, natural gas and other carbon-based forms of energy are causing dangerous climate change and must be turned off as soon as possible, DiCaprio says.

But he has identified the wrong monster. It is the climate scare itself that is the real threat to civilization.

DiCaprio is an actor, not a scientist; it’s no real surprise that his film is sensationalistic and error-riddled. Other climate-change fantasists, who do have a scientific background, have far less excuse.
Science is never settled, but the current state of “climate change” science is quite clear: There is essentially zero evidence that carbon dioxide from human activities is causing catastrophic climate change.

Yes, the “executive summary” of reports from the UN’s International Panel on Climate Change continues to sound the alarm — but the summary is written by the politicians. The scientific bulk of the report, while still tinged with improper advocacy, has all but thrown in the towel.

And the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change lists thousands of scientific papers that either debunk or cast serious doubt on the supposed “consensus” model.

Oregon-based physicist Gordon Fulks sums it up well: “CO2 is said to be responsible for global warming that is not occurring, for accelerated sea-level rise that is not occurring, for net glacial and sea ice melt that is not occurring . . . and for increasing extreme weather that is not occurring.”

COMMENT:  Please read the rest of the piece.  Required.

I'm getting a sense that a number of people, perhaps previously unwavering believers in climate "science," are starting to have serious doubts.  And why not?  The "settled" science is becoming tumultuous. 

Consider this, from the terrific Melanie Sturm, conservative columnist for the Aspen Times.  (A conservative in Aspen is eligible for Secret Service protection.)  From her latest column:    

Today, life-enhancing devices unimaginable to Malthus – refrigerators, phones, air-conditioning, cars, and televisions -- are commonplace, except among the poorest. Why decrease their affordability by increasing the cost of the energy required to make, distribute and run them?

The truth is, affordable energy and the economic growth and well-being it enables are the keys to addressing our greatest concerns, including the environment, joblessness, poverty, and indebtedness – even terrorism.

Think Again – To pass a secure, prosperous and clean world to future generations, shouldn’t we encourage – not constrain -- the scientific inquiry that informs and unleashes boundless human creativity?

The answer, of course, is yes.  But the climate scare, like other scares before it – like the fear of a new "ice age" in the 1970s – is restricting research and investment in energy, transportation, and other foundations of a dynamic society, all in the name of a horror story that isn't following the original outline. 

September 17, 2014       Permalink

THE POLITICS OF THE JUSTICE DEPARTMENT – AT 9:59 A.M. ET:   No attorney general has politicized the Justice Department more than has Eric Holder.  He's at it again.  From John Fund and Hans von Spakovsky in the Washington Times: 

Even we were shocked when we researched our new book, “Obama’s Enforcer: Eric Holder’s Justice Department,” at the extent to which Attorney General Eric Holder Jr. has politicized the Justice Department and put the interests of left-wing ideology and his political party ahead of the fair and impartial administration of justice. However, there is no doubt that the American public has also recognized just how politically corrupt Mr. Holder is, given this month’s very embarrassing poll conducted by Hart Research for NBC News and The Wall Street Journal.

The poll asked respondents their opinions about 10 different national political officials, ranging from Bill Clinton to President Obama to Eric Holder, as well as the Democratic and Republican parties. They were given choices of very positive, somewhat positive, neutral, somewhat negative, very negative and “don’t know the name.” About a third of respondents didn’t know who Mr. Holder is (37 percent). However, those Americans who knew Mr. Holder gave him the second-lowest “positive” rating of anyone or any organization on the survey at a mere 15 percent. Only Arizona Sheriff Joe Arpaio had a lower “positive” rating than Mr. Holder. The attorney general’s “positive” rating was less than half of the positive rating of the Republican Party and 27 points behind that of his boss, Mr. Obama, who was rated favorably by only 42 percent of respondents.

And now, From Fox: 

WASHINGTON – Broadening its push to improve police relations with minorities, the Justice Department has enlisted a team of criminal justice researchers to study racial bias in law enforcement in five American cities and recommend strategies to address the problem nationally, Attorney General Eric Holder said Tuesday.

The police shooting last month of an unarmed black 18-year-old in Ferguson, Missouri underscored the need for the long-planned initiative, Holder said in an interview with The Associated Press.

He said the three-year project could be a "silver lining" if it helps ease racial tensions and "pockets of distrust that show up between law enforcement and the communities that they serve."

COMMENT:  Come on, Eric.  This is an old story, going back 50 years.  Sure, there are problem areas.  I hold no brief for violent, corrupt, or bigoted cops.  But the more serious problem is the horror of crime in black communities, which have sometimes become shooting galleries.  Investigating police departments, which is properly done all the time, will have no impact on that tragedy. 

Holder's Justice Department, for example, seems more intent on investigating possible problems in the New York Police Department than it does in holding up New York as an example of how crime can be successfully fought.  When New York's former police commissioner, Ray Kelly, went to speak to black churches, he always got a standing ovation.  African Americans knew what he had done to improve their neighborhoods.  I don't see anyone standing for Attorney General Holder. Well, maybe Al Sharpton.

September 17, 2014       Permalink

BOOTS? – AT 9:41 A.M. ET:  The phrase of the week is "boots on the ground."  Will American boots be on the ground again in the Mideast?  Field Marshal Obama came to office promising to "end wars," even though he had no idea how to do this.  Now his blunders have put us into a tough spot, facing the prospect of the Islamic State.   One of Britain's leading defense writers, Con Coughlin, comments in The Telegraph: 

I've been saying it for weeks – you can't defeat Isil without putting boots on the ground. And now US General Martin Dempsey, the head of the American Armed Forces, has confirmed what anyone with a reasonable understanding of what is required to defeat Isil knows, that some form of Western ground forces will be needed if this threat is to be fully destroyed.

I am not saying that we need another 2003-style military invasion. That conflict was completely different to the one we now face. Overthrowing Saddam's regime required a conventional state-on-state military operation. The campaign to destroy Isil will be more akin to how we approached the initial invasion of Afghanistan in 2001: Western forces working in conjunction with pro-Western allies such as the Northern Alliance – or France's military intervention in Mali last year, where a French brigade was deployed to deal with the al-Qaeda threat to the north of the country before handing over to African forces to keep the peace.

This should be the template for dealing with Isil, with American, British and other Western ground forces providing practical assistance to local Iraq groups such as the Kurds' Peshmerga fighters. By having our own troops involved, we can help to direct the campaign, as well as making sure that the Isil threat is completely eliminated.

But to do that ministers must get over their irrational hang ups about putting British boots on the ground.

COMMENT:  What we're seeing, of course, is the curse of the left-wing mentality in defense- and foreign policy.  Reports tell us that Obama is having more trouble getting his own party on board for an effort against the Islamic State than he is the Republicans, who are more supportive.  The left believes the problems in the Mideast are our fault.  That we are imperialists.  Colonialists.  Capitalists.  And that the real villain here isn't the Islamic State, but BUSH (!!) and CHENEY (!!!!).  The Democratic Party started to retreat from its pro-defense outlook in the late sixties, and I'm afraid the change looks permanent. 

September 17, 2014       Permalink

GOP DOWN? – AT 9:28 A.M. ET:  New estimates by political observers have the Dems gaining in the race for the Senate.   As reader Will Stroock points out, estimates like these are part of every election cycle, so take them lightly.  But here is Nate Silver's current take.  He has a pretty good record.  From Newsmax: 

The Republican Party's chances of taking control of the Senate have decreased significantly as the fortunes of Democrats in key states have surged, says Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com.

According to the former New York Times statistician, Republican odds stand at 55 percent, a drop from 64 percent just two weeks ago.

"We've never quite settled on the semantics of when to call an election a 'tossup.' A sports bettor or poker player would grimace and probably take a 55-45 edge. But this Senate race is pretty darned close," Silver said on an article on his website.

Silver's detailed statistical model indicates that Democrats now have a stronger possibility of winning due to changes in the Senate races in Colorado and North Carolina which are currently giving the party an advantage when previously Republicans held the edge.

Silver categorizes the two states as "highly competitive purple states," among which are also Iowa, Michigan, and New Hampshire. All five seats are currently held by Democrats and, with the exception of New Hampshire, it has been in these areas where Democrats have gained ground.

He cited numerous recent polls that have shown a surge for North Carolina Sen. Kay Hagan and Colorado Sen. Mark Udall.

"What's perplexing is that [the Democrat surge in purple states] has happened right as Democrats' position on the generic congressional ballot — probably the best indicator of the nation mood — has deteriorated," he said.

COMMENT:  Yeah, it's perplexing.  It's also early.  Polls don't start getting serious until October.  It's those last three weeks that are critical.

Also critical is turnout.  The Dems traditionally have had a better ground game, and they're milking Ferguson for everything it's worth to bring out their base.  But Republicans have improved, and they're more energized, at least thus far.

But look for the Dems to throw a bombshell just before the election.  Anything to win.  Any smear is good enough. 

We've said all along that this isn't going to be easy.  The Dems begin with a huge number of voters who are dependent on government programs.  When these voters are told, "If you don't vote for us, the check may not be in the mail," it's tough to counter that. 

We'll know on November 5th.

September 17,  2014     Permalink